Статистика улья:

Число моделей (из них покрашено): 267 (246); Турнирные игры (Победы - Ничьи - Поражения): 34 - 16 - 13

вторник, 24 сентября 2013 г.

Deeper analysis of pairings with team Belgium

Team Belgium captain Tom Adriany presented me their pairings table for team Belarus so I did some more analysis based on it.

I post again the team Belarus table:

And the team Belgium table is here:

I  multiplied Belgium marks by 5 and coloured the differences between marks in green (no more than 3 points diff), yellow (no more than 6) and red (7+ diff).

Army lists can be found here: 

I rewritten the pairing process with some thoughts from my side, here it is:

Champions. Erle hided Aeris (IG/GK) in a champion game not to let daemons find him.
Tom put Tau as a champion – a good move, but not a lucky shot right here.

So, here Erle was lucky enough to get the pairing that is not positive for Belgium, cause getting draw with Tau is not good and getting draw with IG/GK is ok for Belarus. The result is 10-10 in this game, so both players evaluated this pairing right.

Pair 1. Belarus lost the roll off and put Jarek as the first defender. Erle was shure that Jarek get Daemons, the only non-draw match for Jarek. IG/CSM on the other hand was so afraid of other lists that Tom decided to hide them in DA+IG. It’s not a bad move on one hand but it might be better to use daemons here (they expected 13+ points). The result is 11-9 here in favor of DA+IG, so again both players evaluated correctly.

Pair 2. Tom defends with Necrons. It looks as a good move if to see only Belgium table. But… if to think again – Fredya (Tau/SM) has Librarian with Null zone and Gate with a Farsight with full bodyguard squad. I think that now Necrons feel not so sure about their pairing’s estimation for this matchup. Erle attacks with Tau/SM as Belarus trained their Tau to shred Necrons into pieces. Very good for Belarus, a mistake from team Belgium in the pairings table. As a result Tau gets 16, while Necrons only 4.

Pair 3. Belarusian mech GK is afraid of Daemons, so we defend with CSM (there are no great pairings for CSM left, actually on the Belarusian table). It is strange to see that Tom attacks with CSM. Belgium CSM is not the best army to fight CSM – Tyranids promised to get a positive result, so an unpredictable move. In a mirror CSM-CSM match Belgium player was a bit more lucky and get 13, while Belarus get 7. Maybe Belarus overlooked something here?

Pair 4. Team Belarus captain eyes became O_O like this when he saw the next Belgium defender - Daemons! Looks like Daemons player is a bit overconfident in his evaluations, cause according to the table Tom played good. Belarus go with DE, cause it’s an extremely good pairing for DE if to believe Belarusian table:) The result shows that Belgium player was closer to the truth and get 11 points, while DE get only 9! A mistake from Belarus DE player in the pairing evaluation, neverthelee, not a bad move from team Belarus, cause there were no more good pairings for DE.

Pair 5. Belarus  defends with Necrons – Warpstone can play comfortably with any of the lists remaining, cause CSM is out! Belgium attacks with SW. WHY?!? It was so juicy to put GK/Tau here and get a major victory (according to Belgium table). SW risks and get 10 points, as well as Necrons. So, both players evaluated this pairing correctly.

Pair 6. Belgium defends with Grey Knights. Good move. Belarus attacks with GK – looks like a mirror match, so no problems should be there to get a draw. And the result is 8 Belarus – Belgium 12, that is close to a draw, so both players evaluated this match correctly.

Pair 7. Belarusian last stand is Tyranids as well as the Belgium last stand is tyranids too! Another mirror match!!! Belgium player put 13+ here, while Erle is looking forward to get a close game with a draw result. It ends with 11 Belgium – Belarus 9, so Erle looks to be closer to the truth.

Let’s now analize the full picture. Here are three mirror matches – three draws at the average.
If to analize team Belgium table, here is only 1 very good pairing, 3 near draw pairings and 4 risky pairings.
If to look at the Belarusian table, here are 2 very good pairings and 6 near draw pairings.

The evaluations are so close, but those mistakes make the game, actually.

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